The Cost

The biggest swing is how many immersion students stay. Sunsetting (every current K–8 student finishes, row 2), everything else at base:

• Every immersion student stays: about $2.08 million.
• 50% of immersion students stay (our base estimate): about $2.44 million.
• Most leave: about $2.81 million. Children who stay still need classroom teachers. This counts only Chinese-side positions; the district's method also counts English-side sections.

These are discrete scenarios, not a per-family rate. Staffing changes in whole sections, and the district has not published how placement-form responses translate into sections or positions. If staying is your family's real choice, say so on the form: Take Action, step 2. ^{2 22 1}

Even the all-stay figure is our estimate, not the reported district condition. It still counts some teacher cost for small immersion classes at the district class size guidelines.

• If staffing truly stayed the same, as reported, sunsetting would add no teacher cost. The all-stay figure would be about $672,500, all support costs (instructional support staff, visas, materials and similar).
• The stipend, aide and coach lines are $0 at base because the district lists them among its 2026–27 reductions. The consultant and dean lines are $0 because its list of current costs names neither. ^{2 1}

Cancelling could produce real savings and still be the wrong choice. The question is how much more sunsetting costs than cancelling, and whether that is worth avoiding an abrupt disruption. Real savings = what stops being spent, minus what keeps being spent or newly gets spent.

• Sunsetting is different from continuing the full program. Enrolling new kindergartners and sunsetting (every enrolled student finishes) are separate decisions. The district should price them separately; each option is its own row in the table above.
• Show the extra savings from ending abruptly. Compare cancellation with sunsetting (no new entry), counting ordinary instruction, receiving-school staffing and transition costs in both. That difference is the financial benefit being weighed against disrupting current students.
• District figures, subtracted ($1.23 million less $360,000, our subtraction; the $360,000 is labeled first-year; the $1.23 million is not): about $870,000 if both are first-year, shrinking each year as classes finish. ¹
• Our estimate (not a district figure): sunsetting adds about $2.44 million over eight years compared with cancelling, $707,300 of it in 2027–28 (our base estimate); about $672,500 to $2.81 million across the staffing scenarios.
• Compare workable alternatives. Could consolidation, adjusted support staffing or another instructional arrangement keep a meaningful pathway at lower cost? Voluntary parent funding, with families helping pay part of the added cost of continuing the full program or of sunsetting, is a possible way to offset cost, if the Board finds an avenue within the district's rules. These are options to evaluate, not savings we can assume. See Options.
• For comparison only. On September 17, 2026, the Chapel Hill-Carrboro (North Carolina) board voted 4–2 to end the less intensive Mandarin world-language program at Glenwood Elementary (45 minutes of Mandarin a week, not immersion), with an exception allowing current fourth graders to finish the final year; a board member estimated about 33 fourth graders and 10 siblings. Its separate dual-language immersion track was moved to another school by an August vote. ²³

The yearly added cost behind the eight-year totals, from the model file. 2027–28 is the first year of implementation. These are assumption scenarios, not confidence bounds.

Continue full program (ongoing, new kindergarten cohort each year). Added cost versus cancelling, in today's (2026–27) dollars. 2027–28 is the first year of implementation.

Sunsetting: every current student finishes (no new kindergarten class). Added cost versus cancelling, in today's (2026–27) dollars. 2027–28 is the first year of implementation.

• A 50/50 immersion class still teaches the ordinary curriculum. Cancellation does not remove students' need for classroom teachers.
• If a Chinese-side teacher moves into a needed regular classroom, the program allocation disappears but the payroll continues. That move can also avoid a separate hire for a real vacancy.
• Neither "every salary is saved" nor "reassignment saves nothing" is reliable without position-level records.

Values are shown as low / base / high where they differ. “Sourced” means copied from a cited public document; “derived” is arithmetic on sourced numbers; “estimate” is a labeled parent assumption; “illustrative” is a placeholder that shows the arithmetic; “unverified” is a figure with no public amount behind it.

• district_excess_cost_2627sourced

  District's stated annual cost of the K–8 Chinese programs beyond a traditional classroom, 2026–27: 1,257,600 USD/yr

  ¹ p.88 ('ANNUAL TOTAL $1,257,600'): additional K–8 staffing $1,080,000; instructional resources $85,000; instructional support staff $75,000 ('Portion of Instructional Coach & District World Language Coordinator salary and benefits'); additional substitute teacher costs for conferences $3,600; immigration & visa sponsorship fees $14,000 ('This is an estimate. Actual costs vary greatly based on individual circumstances.'). The district says these are 'annual estimates based on historical costs' that 'are current and do not assume increases due to inflation', that the staffing estimate 'includes an average salary, payroll taxes and district-paid benefits', and that 'if all students in the program attended their home school, this cost would not be incurred by the district' (p.88). The worksheet behind the lines is not published.

• district_staffing_2627sourced

  District's 'Additional K–8 Staffing' line, 2026–27: 1,080,000 USD/yr

  ¹ p.88 About 11.8 teacher FTE at the BASE teacher cost (1,080,000 / 91,477). The number of positions is not stated.

• district_students_2627derived

  Students in Chinese immersion (K–5) and Chinese Language Arts (6–8), fall 2026: 460 students

  ¹ pp.90–91 (beginning-of-year counts): Wolf Springs Elementary and Valley Park 278 + Wolf Springs Middle and Overland Trail Middle 182 Used to express the district's $1,257,600 per student and to scale the materials line.

• district_savings_hs_only_yr1sourced

  District's estimated savings (not labeled first-year), the option selected (Chinese at the high school level only): 1,230,000 USD

  ¹ p.93: 'Ultimately, the decision to transition Chinese programming to the high school level only was selected for an estimated $1.23 million in savings.' Rounded as printed. Assumes the staffing line is largely removed in 2027–28; p.89 says transfer students 'may remain at their current school' and 'the full financial impact may not be realized immediately'.

• district_savings_phase_out_cla_yr1sourced

  District's estimated first-year savings, phase out CLA 6–8 and discontinue elementary programming (not selected): 1,100,000 USD

  ¹ p.93 'an estimated $1.1 million in savings in the first year and additional savings in the subsequent years'.

• district_savings_special_option_yr1sourced

  District's estimated first-year savings, a Chinese special option at elementary and phase out of middle-school CLA (not selected): 1,000,000 USD

  ¹ p.93 'an estimated $1 million savings in the first year and additional savings in the subsequent years'.

• district_savings_sunset_yr1sourced

  District's estimated first-year savings, sunset the elementary immersion and middle-school CLA programs (not selected): 360,000 USD

  ¹ p.93: 'Sunset the elementary immersion and middle school CLA programs. This would have resulted in an estimated $360,000 in savings in the first year and additional savings in the subsequent years.' Our subtraction of two printed district figures, $1,230,000 - $360,000 = $870,000 (the $360,000 is labeled first-year; the $1.23 million is not), is the year-one difference if both are first-year.

• district_net_section_factorderived

  Net share of closed immersion sections that the district's 2022 worksheet counts as saved staffing (sections closed, net of sections added at receiving schools): 0.6364 share

  ¹ pp.24–29 ('Net Effect of Immersion Participant Migration', 10/19/2022): if every immersion student returned to the home school, 22 immersion sections close (Valley Park 10, Wolf Springs 12) and the district's net change is -14 sections, because 8 sections are added at non-immersion sections. 14 / 22 = 0.6364. Applied here to the 2026–27 and later section counts to show the district method applied to our cohorts. It is the district's 2022 worksheet ratio, not a 2026 worksheet; the 2026 worksheet behind the $1,080,000 is not published.

• gf_budget_2627sourced

  General Fund, amount budgeted 2026–27: 200,590,299 USD

  ⁷ printed p.8 (Sources of Revenue and Proposed Budget, General) Fund 06 only; includes transfers out. Comparator, not money available for any use.

• gsg_exp_2627sourced

  General + Supplemental General expenditures, 2026–27 budget: 180,670,569 USD

  ⁷ printed p.6 Operating comparator.

• per_pupil_gsg_2627sourced

  General + Supplemental General expenditure per pupil, 2026–27 budget: 8,354 USD/pupil

  ⁷ printed p.6 ('Amount per Pupil') Used ONLY to express a cost as an equivalent number of pupils at current average spending; an expenditure figure, not state aid per pupil and not the marginal funding lost when one pupil leaves.

• sped_transfer_2026sourced

  District-stated general-fund transfer to cover special-education shortfall, 2026 projection: 18,000,000 USD

  ¹⁶ ('projected to increase to $18 million for 2026') The only district shortfall-type figure found. It is NOT a total budget shortfall and NOT linked by the district to Chinese.

• projected_deficit_2627sourced

  District's projected deficit (shortfall comparator): 4,000,000 USD

  ²⁰ district budget video Oct 9, 2026 [06:46] 'We're projecting approximately a $4 million deficit.' District's own spoken projection, after ~$6M of reductions and ~$12M of reserves used to close FY2026. Year not stated precisely; treated as 2026–27.

• gap_2627_marchsourced

  Superintendent's 2026–27 gap statement (March): 10,000,000 USD

  ³¹ Board meeting Mar 9, 2026 [00:34:56] 'a gap of $10 million this year' Earlier figure, before reductions; shown for context.

• operating_reserves_0701_2026sourced

  Operating reserves (highlighted funds), July 1, 2026: 25,906,319 USD

  ³² 2026–27 Budget Publication p.4 (9.69%; $38,680,032 / 15.05% on July 1, 2025) Context only.

• contingency_reserve_0701_2026sourced

  Contingency reserve fund (53), July 1, 2026: 14,889,000 USD

  ³² 2026–27 Budget Publication p.4 Restricted-purpose fund; context only.

• teacher_avg_allin_2627sourced

  District 2026–27 contracted average, full-time teachers (all-in: salary + supplemental/extra pay + board-paid fringe; NO payroll tax): 85,732 USD/FTE

  ⁷ printed p.12: 2026–27 contracted average $85,732 (1,633.0 FTE, $140,000,000). The KSDE form defines Total Salary as including employee reduction plans, supplemental, extra pay for summer school, and board-paid fringe benefits (group life, group health, disability, AD&D, hospital/surgical/medical insurance), and says it does NOT include social security, workers' compensation or unemployment insurance. Because the figure already contains fringe and supplemental pay, no fringe or supplemental amount is added on top (no double counting). The 2026–27 component split is not published.

• ksde_salary_2526sourced

  KSDE 2025–26 average teacher base salary, USD 229: 72,488 USD/FTE

  ²¹ (report 20, 2025–26) Component split used only to estimate the fringe share.

• ksde_supplemental_2526sourced

  KSDE 2025–26 average supplemental pay, USD 229: 3,681 USD/FTE

  ²¹ (report 20, 2025–26) Treated as taxable wages (FICA applies).

• ksde_fringe_2526sourced

  KSDE 2025–26 average board-paid fringe, USD 229: 10,790 USD/FTE

  ²¹ (report 20, 2025–26) Insurance-type benefits; NOT subject to FICA.

• ksde_total_2526sourced

  KSDE 2025–26 average total, USD 229 (as printed): 86,960 USD/FTE

  ²¹ (report 20, 2025–26) Components sum to $86,959; $1 rounding in the source.

• fringe_shareestimate

  Fringe share of the all-in teacher average: 0.1241 share

  Derived: 10,790 / 86,960 from ²¹ 2025–26, carried to 2026–27 Estimate: assumes the 2026–27 split matches 2025–26. Also applied, as a stand-in, to the administrator and classified averages (⁷ p.12), whose splits are not published.

• fica_ratesourced

  Employer payroll tax (Social Security 6.2% + Medicare 1.45%): 0.0765 share of wages

  Federal statutory rate Applied to the wage part only (all-in x (1 - fringe_share)).

• wc_ui_rateestimate

  Workers' compensation + unemployment insurance load (HIGH only): 0 / 0 / 0.02 share of wages

  No public figure Applied to the wage part only.

• teacher_costderived

  Cost per teacher FTE used in the model: 85,732 / 91,477 / 92,978 USD/FTE

  Formula: LOW = all-in average. BASE = all-in + fica_rate x all-in x (1 - fringe_share). HIGH = BASE + wc_ui_rate x all-in x (1 - fringe_share). Inputs: teacher_avg_allin_2627, fringe_share, fica_rate, wc_ui_rate. LOW omits payroll tax. FICA is charged only on the salary-and-supplemental part, not on board-paid insurance. KPERS employer share is a state pass-through for school employees and is excluded. Actual Chinese-side teachers may sit above or below the district average (records needed: FIN03).

• stay_shareestimate

  Blended share of all modeled immersion students assumed to stay at their current school if the program ends (displacement weight): 1.0 / 0.5 / 0.0 0–1

  ² (KCTV5, secondary): superintendent said cancelling 'cutting the program would save nine teacher positions if students returned to their neighborhood schools' (KCTV5 paraphrase) and that if parents choose to stay at their current schools, staffing would remain the same (reporter's paraphrase, not a quotation). ³³ Q6 lets transfer students stay for 2027–28. KEY SCENARIO PARAMETER, used as three discrete assumption scenarios (all stay / about half / most leave), NOT a per-student rate for any one child and not a confidence bound. The code applies this one weight uniformly to every modeled student at every site and grade (a linear, fractional credit); it is not the share of transfer students who stay, because the model has no split between students who already attend their home school and transfer families (the district's 2022 model kept 94 of 283 Wolf Springs immersion students at Wolf Springs, ¹ p.29). Real staffing changes in whole sections and the district has published no section counts. Children who stay still need classroom teachers, so a Chinese-side teacher replaces a teacher the district needs anyway; children who return home are absorbed elsewhere and the position can be cut. LOW 100% stay, BASE 50%, HIGH 0%. The placement-form totals would settle a key input (request aggregate counts); staffing schedules and receiving-school capacity are also needed, and district section counts (FIN03, FIN05) would replace this assumption.

• displacement_basis_ptrestimate

  How much staffing staying children need: 0 = all current positions (district statement); 1 = Board PTR-matched need: 0 / 1 / 1 flag

  LOW, and the separate 'all stay, staffing unchanged' scenario, follow KCTV5's report that the superintendent said staffing would remain the same if parents choose to stay (²). BASE/HIGH use district class size guidelines targets (³ p.11), which treat small cohorts (e.g., VPE ~33) as needing less than a full second teacher. Irrelevant when stay_share = 0. The first staffing scenario (all stay, staffing unchanged) sets this to 0 with all else at BASE; the other scenarios use the BASE value of 1.

• stipends_per_duosourced

  Program stipends (supplemental contracts) per elementary teaching pair: 0 / 0 / 2 stipends/duo

  LOW and BASE = 0: the district lists 'Additional 3% Salary for Teachers, $50,000' among the reductions that 'went into effect for the 2026–27 school year' (¹ p.5). HIGH = both co-teachers of a pair (³ p.11), kept as a sensitivity. For 2025–26, 13 'ADDL TEACHING CI-YEAR' supplementals were listed (²⁶, ²⁵) / 9 site-grades = 1.44 per pair. 'CI' is undefined in the HR reports and amounts are not printed; none is listed in any 2026 HR report through Oct 12, 2026. The HIGH case restores them.

• stipend_per_teacherderived

  Program-teacher stipend amount: 2,040 / 2,296 / 2,296 USD/stipend-yr

  ³ p.11: average $2,040 per teacher, 2022–23 actual BASE/HIGH escalated 3%/yr to 2026–27 (estimate). Whether stipends still exist in 2026–27 is unknown.

• para_rule_weightestimate

  Weight on paras required by the 2023 rule (para when an immersion class exceeds Board PTR): 1 / 1 / 0 0–1

  ²⁴: 'Para professionals would be hired when classes exceed Board-established pupil-to-teacher ratios.' LOW and BASE apply the adopted 2023 rule (no paras while classes are at or under the ratio). HIGH uses the pre-2023 design instead (next row). Paras per pair are the larger of this rule and the per-pair row below.

• paras_per_duosourced

  Mandarin aides per elementary grade-level teaching pair: if each grade pair had a program aide (the district lists this support as cut for 2026–27): 0 / 0 / 1 paras/duo

  BASE = 0. The district lists 'Chinese Para Support, $654,000' among the reductions that 'went into effect for the 2026–27 school year' (¹ p.5). Parents also report no Chinese-immersion-specific paraeducators in 2026–27 (parent report, Oct 16, 2026, unverified; ²⁷). HIGH = 1 per pair, the earlier allowance (a room-parent email of Sept 2025, ²⁸, listed a Mandarin para in the 2025–26 kindergarten pair), kept so the sensitivity still exists; it is not the case in 2026–27. Counted per pair; where the 2023 rule adds more, the larger number is used, not both.

• para_costderived

  Cost per paraeducator position: 23,182 / 26,091 / 37,768 USD/position

  LOW: ³ p.11 $510,000 / 22 paras (2 per site-grade x 11 site-grades in 2022–23). HIGH: ⁷ p.12 classified average $56,634 per 2,080-hr FTE x 1,300 school-year hrs (estimate), plus FICA on the wage part only (fringe share as teacher_avg estimate). BASE = LOW escalated 3%/yr for 4 yrs (estimate). Reading '$510,000 for two paras per grade level' as 22 positions is an interpretation.

• consultant_prorataestimate

  Chinese-speaking consultant, cost scaled by share of 2026–27 elementary site-grades still running: 0 / 0 / 0 USD/yr at full scale

  ³ p.11: $46,800 actual, 2022–23. BASE = 0 because the district's own list of current costs (¹ p.88) names no consultant. Whether a consultant contract exists in 2026–27 is not stated; the district's p.88 list has none. HIGH is carried in consultant_fixed.

• consultant_fixedestimate

  Chinese-speaking consultant, full cost while any elementary immersion runs: 0 / 0 / 52,673 USD/yr

  ³ p.11 ($46,800 actual, 2022–23, converted to 2026–27 dollars) HIGH only. Not in the district's p.88 list.

• idc_proratasourced

  Chinese-side instructional design coach supplemental, scaled by share of 2026–27 elementary site-grades: 0 / 0 / 0 USD/yr at full scale

  ¹ p.5: 'Chinese Immersion Instructional Design Coach (IDC), $90,000' is among the reductions that 'went into effect for the 2026–27 school year'. ²⁶ (HR addendum, Sep 8, 2025): a Chinese-side coach supplemental '16 EXTENDED DAYS-IDC' at WSE and VPE in 2025–26. ³⁰ (HR report, Sep 14, 2026): no Chinese-specific coach supplemental listed for 2026–27, only the general WSE coach. ²⁴ (Nov 13, 2023): proposed a bilingual coach for the program. LOW = BASE = 0 because the district lists this coach as a 2026–27 reduction (¹ p.5). A parent reports the former Chinese-side coach is teaching in the program this year (²⁷); that salary is a teaching position, not an added coaching cost. HIGH is carried in idc_fixed.

• idc_fixedunverified

  Chinese-side instructional design coach supplemental, full while any elementary immersion runs: 0 / 0 / 7,375 USD/yr

  ²⁶; ³⁰; ³⁴; ⁷ p.12 HIGH = the prior supplemental restored: 16 extended days x the teacher daily rate (all-in teacher average $85,732 / 186 contract days = $461; no payroll tax added). 186 days is the state minimum school year ³⁴ and an assumption for the contract year; a coach's actual daily rate is not public.

• dean_prorataunverified

  Dean supplemental, scaled by share of 2026–27 elementary site-grades still running: 0 / 0 / 0 USD/yr at full scale

  ²⁹ (Board meeting, Apr 13, 2026): the superintendent said the administrative intern role is now called 'dean'. ³⁰ (HR report, Sep 14, 2026): the dean is a teacher supplemental ('14 EXTENDED DAYS-ADMIN DEAN' plus 'ADMIN DEAN SUPV STIPEND') listed at six elementary schools, not only the immersion school. ² (KCTV5): the superintendent said the program 'includes a dean, which most other buildings do not have'. LOW = BASE = 0 (unconfirmed) because the role exists at six elementary schools and no public document ties it to immersion. The supplements are confirmed; whether any salary cost of the role ends with the program is not confirmed. HIGH is carried in dean_fixed. Replaces the earlier administrator-salary basis.

• dean_fixedunverified

  Dean supplemental, full cost while any elementary immersion runs: 0 / 0 / 8,749 USD/yr

  ²⁹; ³⁰; ³⁴; ² HIGH = 14 extended days x the teacher daily rate ($85,732 / 186 contract days = $461, an assumption; no payroll tax added) + a supervisory stipend of $2,296 (UNVERIFIED stand-in: the model's 2026–27 program-stipend amount; the actual stipend is not public).

• support_staff_fixedsourced

  Instructional support staff: portion of an instructional coach and the district world language coordinator (district allocation), while any elementary immersion runs: 0 / 75,000 / 75,000 USD/yr

  ¹ p.88: 'Instructional Support Staff, $75,000 (Portion of Instructional Coach & District World Language Coordinator salary and benefits)'. BASE = the district's figure, so the estimate does not understate. It is an allocation of K–12 roles that may continue regardless of the program (the coordinator leads all K–12 world languages and high-school Chinese continues; the elementary coach is a general building position), so this line may not be an avoidable cost. LOW = 0 shows that case. Counted in full while any elementary immersion runs.

• visa_per_ftederived

  Work-authorization cost per Mandarin-teaching FTE per year (LOW and BASE set so the 2026–27 program-wide total is the district's $14,000): 1473.68 / 1473.68 / 5,000 USD/FTE-yr

  LOW and BASE: the district's 'Immigration & Visa Sponsorship Fees, $14,000' for 2026–27 (¹ p.88; 'This is an estimate. Actual costs vary greatly based on individual circumstances.') divided by the 2026–27 Mandarin-teaching FTE in this model. HIGH: our earlier basis, ³ p.11: '$15,000 per three years for one visa' for '>80%' of teachers, rounded up (all teachers, $5,000 per FTE). ³⁵: 16 of 27 Mandarin-speaking teachers/paras in immigration process. The September 2022 evaluation reproduced in ¹ p.10 budgeted $144,800 a year (visa sponsorship of $14,000 per three years, estimated at $44,800 a year, plus an attorney-fee estimate of $100,000 a year) for a fully built program; the district's 2026 figure is lower. HIGH keeps our earlier, higher basis.

• materials_per_studentderived

  Mandarin materials per participating student: 108.424 / 184.783 / 184.783 USD/student-yr

  BASE and HIGH: the district's 'Instructional Resources, $85,000' a year (¹ p.88) / 460 students (¹ pp.90–91) = $184.78 per student. LOW: the FY2026 vendor claims, Mandarin Matrix $32,620 + Level Chinese $17,255 = $49,875 (June 30, 2026 claims report, ⁶) / 460 students = $108.42. The district's figure is about 70% more than the $49,875 paid to two Mandarin curriculum vendors in the June 30, 2026 claims report (⁶); the district has not itemized the difference. It is also above the $58,450 full-build figure in the 2022 evaluation (¹ p.10, 648 students). Its breakdown, and which fund pays, are not given, so we use it at BASE (never understating) and show the claims basis at LOW. Vendor payments are curriculum inputs, not savings (FIN07 and FIN08 ask for the contracts and the fund).

• other_per_duoderived

  Conference substitutes per elementary teaching pair (the district's program-wide $3,600 spread over the 8 pairs of 2026–27): 450 / 450 / 1,182 USD/duo-yr

  LOW and BASE: ¹ p.88 'Additional Substitute Teacher Costs for Conferences, $3,600' / 8 site-grades in 2026–27 = $450 per pair. Onboarding is 0: 'Training and Professional Learning, $6,500' is listed as a 2026–27 reduction (¹ p.5). HIGH: ³ p.12 substitutes $6,600 + onboarding $4,950 (2022–23), / 11 site-grades, converted to 2026–27 dollars. Small.

• maintenance_fixedsourced

  Program maintenance (ACTFL travel) while elementary immersion runs: 0 / 0 / 3,000 USD/yr

  ³ p.12: $3,000 budgeted 2022–23. Not in the district's p.88 list, so LOW and BASE are 0; HIGH only.

• ms_participationderived

  Share of a cohort that moves from grade 5 into middle-school Chinese Language Arts (the 5 to 6 step): 0.92 share

  ¹ pp.90–91: across both sites, 249 fifth graders became 231 sixth graders in the next fall's CLA counts (-7.2%, 7 transitions, fall 2022 to fall 2026), so 0.92. Cohorts already in grades 6–8 in 2026–27 start from the district's CLA enrollment counts, so no participation share is applied to them (1.0). After grade 6 the cohort loses 5% going to grade 7 and 3% going to grade 8 (attrition_ms_6to7, attrition_ms_7to8). Varied 80% / 100% in Sensitivity.

• ms_max_sectionestimate

  Maximum CLA section size: 30 students

  No public figure Minimum one section per grade per site whenever any student is enrolled.

• ms_regular_classestimate

  Typical middle-school class size used for displacement: 28 students

  No public figure (grade 4–5 Board PTR is 28, ³ p.11)

• ms_sections_per_fteestimate

  CLA sections taught per teacher FTE: 7 / 6 / 5 sections/FTE

  No public figure Depends on the middle-school bell schedule (FIN05).

• bridge_group_sizeestimate

  Maximum bridge group size: 27 students

  Half of the 54-student grade cap (²⁴)

• bridge_sessions_per_fteestimate

  Daily 30–45 min Mandarin sessions per licensed bridge teacher: 8 / 7 / 5 groups/FTE

  No public figure LOW ~30-min blocks; HIGH 45-min blocks plus prep/travel.

• study_costestimate

  One-time cost of a public program study (pause option): 0 / 25,000 / 75,000 USD

  No public figure LOW = done by staff; HIGH = outside evaluator.

• pause_yearsestimate

  Length of pause (current cohorts continue, no new entry): 2 years

  Parent proposal

• attritionderived

  Annual cohort attrition, Wolf Springs Elementary grades K–5: 0.05 share/yr

  ¹ p.90 (beginning-of-year counts): pooled year-over-year change from one grade to the next within K–5 at Wolf Springs averaged -4.7% a year (35 grade-to-grade transitions, 2017–2026). Varied 2%–8% in Sensitivity (the Valley Park rate moves with it, 5 points higher). Applies to every elementary cohort from its 2026–27 count and to future kindergarten cohorts after they enter.

• attrition_vpederived

  Annual cohort attrition, Valley Park Elementary grades 4–5: 0.1 share/yr

  ¹ p.91: pooled year-over-year change within K–5 at Valley Park averaged -10.6% a year (24 transitions, 2018–2026). Valley Park's last entering class was 2022–23 (³⁶); two grades remain in 2026–27. Applies to the two remaining Valley Park elementary cohorts.

• attrition_ms_6to7derived

  Cohort attrition from grade 6 to grade 7 (middle-school CLA): 0.05 share/yr

  ¹ pp.90–91: -5.3% across both sites excluding one outlier (Overland Trail Middle, 37 to 24, 2025 to 2026); -5.6% at Wolf Springs Middle.

• attrition_ms_7to8derived

  Cohort attrition from grade 7 to grade 8 (middle-school CLA): 0.03 share/yr

  ¹ pp.90–91: -3.4% across both sites (3 transitions).

• duo_capacitysourced

  Students per elementary teaching pair (two classes): 54 students

  ²⁴ '54 students per grade level per year'; ³ p.11: WSE K PTR 26.5 with 53 students and 2 teachers

• new_k_cohort_sizeillustrative

  Students in each NEW kindergarten cohort entering every year (Option 7, continue full program): 46 students/yr

  Set equal to the fall 2026 kindergarten immersion enrollment of 46 at Wolf Springs Elementary (¹ p.90). WSE only: VPE's last entering class was 2022–23 (³⁶). Earlier entering classes were 53–56 (2018–2023) and 35 and 37 (2024, 2025). Future enrollment demand is UNKNOWN (FIN04). Applies only to Option 7; the same size is used for every future entering year and the same attrition applies afterward. Varied 35 / 54 in Sensitivity. Replace with the district's enrollment and application counts.

• transition_one_timeillustrative

  One-time transition cost (memo; every option incurs one when its program ends): 0 / 50,000 / 150,000 USD

  Same illustrative values as the research workbook (the illustration table under “How net savings should be measured” on this page, ILL-01 to ILL-05) Not netted: cancellation incurs it in 2027–28; sunset options defer it. Timing only.

• board_ptr_targetssourced

  District class size guidelines (pupil-to-teacher) by grade (K–5): K: 23.0 · 1: 24.0 · 2: 25.0 · 3: 27.0 · 4: 28.0 · 5: 28.0 students/teacher

  ³ p.11 'Target PTR' K 23, 1 24, 2 25, 3 27, 4 28, 5 28 (2022–23)

• cohorts_2026_27sourced

  Students enrolled by grade and site in fall 2026 (14 cohorts, total 460): 460 in 14 cohorts (grade-by-grade table below) students

  ¹ pp.90–91: the district's beginning-of-year enrollment in Chinese immersion (Wolf Springs Elementary K–5, Valley Park 4–5) and Chinese Language Arts (Wolf Springs Middle and Overland Trail Middle 6–8), fall 2026. District counts, not estimates. Grades 6–8 are CLA enrollment. The unofficial posted Wolf Springs class list (⁴) is now used only for the regular (non-immersion) homerooms in the whole-classroom check.

The district’s own fall 2026 counts: Wolf Springs Elementary immersion and Wolf Springs Middle Chinese Language Arts (p. 90), Valley Park immersion and Overland Trail Middle Chinese Language Arts (p. 91). Grades 6–8 are Chinese Language Arts enrollment. ¹

Wolf Springs Elementary, 2026–27, whole-classroom check from the unofficial posted class list. Needed = the grade total divided by the Board target, rounded up. This is the current-year check. For later years the regular classes on this list move up one grade each year (later kindergartens are assumed to be 41, with no attrition), and the model counts whole classrooms at Wolf Springs, as in the 2027–28 class-size table above. These are projections, to be replaced with district projections. ⁴

• Teacher cost. LOW = A. BASE = A + 0.0765 x A x (1 - f). HIGH = BASE + 0.02 x A x (1 - f). A = teacher_avg_allin_2627 ($85,732, already includes supplemental pay and board-paid insurance); f = fringe_share (10,790 / 86,960 = 0.1241). Payroll tax is charged only on the wage part A x (1 - f).
• Cohort size. From the district's fall-2026 count, each year up one grade: elementary grades lose the site's attrition (Wolf Springs 5%, Valley Park 10%); the step from grade 5 to grade 6 keeps 92%; grade 6 to 7 loses 5%; grade 7 to 8 loses 3%; rounded to whole students. Cohorts already in grades 6–8 start from CLA enrollment.
• Elementary teaching pairs. pairs = max(1, ceil(n / 54)) per cohort and year, for grades K–5 while the option runs elementary 50/50.
• Regular-teacher need. Valley Park: need = n / PTR(grade); matched = min(max(need - pairs, 0), pairs). Wolf Springs: matched = pairs - rooms freed, where rooms freed = min(max(rooms with immersion - rooms without immersion, 0), pairs); rooms with immersion = 2 x pairs + regular homerooms, rooms without immersion = ceil((regular students + immersion students) / PTR(grade)), regular homerooms = ceil(regular students / PTR(grade)). Matched positions are Chinese-side teachers the same children would need anyway. The regular classes are the 2026–27 posted list moved up one grade each year (later kindergartens 41, no attrition). The cautious per-grade sensitivity takes, in each Wolf Springs grade, the smaller matched number of the class-size ratio and the whole-classroom count.
• Elementary teacher cost. (pairs - w x [p x matched + (1 - p) x pairs]) x teacher cost. w = stay_share scenario (1.0 / 0.5 / 0.0), a blended weight applied linearly to fractional positions for all modeled students; p = displacement_basis_ptr (0 LOW, 1 BASE/HIGH).
• Middle-school CLA sections. participants = the cohort's CLA enrollment (the 5 to 6 step already applies the 92% share); sections = max(1, ceil(participants / 30)); FTE = sections / sections_per_FTE.
• Middle-school teacher cost. (sections - w x [p x matched sections + (1 - p) x sections]) / sections_per_FTE x teacher cost. matched sections = sections x min(1, class size / 28).
• Bridge teachers. groups = max(1, ceil(n / 27)) per cohort; FTE = groups / sessions_per_FTE; cost = FTE x teacher cost.
• Stipends, paras, support. stipends = stipends_per_duo x pairs x stipend_per_teacher (0 at LOW and BASE: cut for 2026–27, ¹ p.5); paras = max(para_rule_weight x rule paras, paras_per_duo x pairs) x para_cost (0 at BASE); consultant, coach and dean (supplemental pay: extended days at the teacher daily rate, plus the dean's stipend) = pro-rata x share of 2026–27 elementary site-grades still running + fixed x (running = 1/0) (all 0 at BASE); instructional support staff = support_staff_fixed ($75,000 at BASE, the district's p.88 allocation) x (any elementary immersion running = 1/0).
• Visas, materials, other. visa = visa_per_fte x (pairs + MS FTE + bridge FTE), set so 2026–27 is the district's $14,000; materials = materials_per_student ($85,000 / 460 at BASE) x all students served; other = other_per_duo ($3,600 / 8 pairs at BASE) x pairs + maintenance (HIGH only).
• District staffing method (preliminary extrapolation, not a forecast). Every student returns to the home school; both sides' immersion sections close, net of the regular sections added back at Wolf Springs and Valley Park for children who live there (in the 2022 worksheet, changes at the other elementary schools offset: five grade-level classrooms added and five removed, for zero net change; at the building-total level, three schools increased and three decreased): elementary FTE = 2 x pairs x district_net_section_factor (14 / 22, ¹ pp.24–29); CLA FTE = sections / sections_per_FTE; cost = FTE x BASE teacher cost. The district's own $1,080,000 staffing line is about 11.8 FTE at our teacher cost of $91,477 (the district average plus payroll tax on the wage part); that is our division, not a district count. This case is a preliminary extrapolation of the district's 2022 method to current classes, not a forecast and not a claim about the district's $1.23 million: the district says transfer students may stay through graduation and 'the full financial impact may not be realized immediately' (¹ p.89).
• Total and cumulative. Annual total = sum of the cost lines; cumulative = sum over2027–28 through 2034–35, constant 2026–27 dollars (no inflation).
• Comparators. Share of $4 million deficit = year-one cost / 4,000,000. % of General Fund = average annual cost / 200,590,299. Per student-year = cumulative / student-years served. Equivalent pupils at current average spending = average annual cost / 8,354 (a scale reference only; $8,354 is average spending per pupil, not the marginal funding lost when a pupil leaves).
• Nine positions (illustration). 9 x A = $771,588 (all-in) or 9 x BASE teacher cost. A gross illustration of nine average positions before reassignment or attrition; not a savings estimate.
• Keep the program (Option 7). Current cohorts as in Option 2, plus a new kindergarten cohort of new_k_cohort_size students (46) entering WSE every fall 2027–28 onward, each followed through K–5 and middle-school CLA with the same attrition. No end year. Cumulative 2027–28 through 2034–35 uses the same time horizon as the other options (not the same population, since new kindergarten cohorts are added). Continuation creates obligations beyond that period. The cost of the next school year (2027–28) is the same formulas evaluated for that year, for continuing the full program and for sunsetting; today's (2026–27) dollars.
• Staffing scenarios. Three discrete scenarios (all stay, about half stay, most leave). The only evidence is an aggregate statement (²). Section-level effects are stepwise and cannot be known without district section counts, so no per-family savings rate is computed or implied. The model itself applies the credit linearly to fractional positions; real staffing changes in whole positions at classroom thresholds. These are assumption scenarios, not confidence bounds. District staffing data (FIN03, FIN05) would replace them.

Program In-Excess Costs — Actual & Budgeted Expenditures 2022-23 ³

• The nine printed rows add exactly to the declared $752,790: about $1,651 per student at 456 students.
• The report separately projects "nearly $1.1 million per year for a maximum of 648 students" at full build-out. That is a forecast, not an appropriation. ³
• The $510,000 line: the report says two paraeducators per grade level supported larger classes and kept Mandarin going when a Chinese-side teacher was absent. ³
• The adopted 2023 plan called for changing staffing: paraeducators hired when classes exceed Board-established pupil-to-teacher ratios, and a new bilingual Instructional Design Team position for the program. ²⁴

• In March 2026 the superintendent told the Board the district had "already made the reductions that we can" and that there is "not one program or one thing that we do that I can say yeah we don't really need that." The October 2026 document compares only Chinese options (p. 93); we have not located a published comparison with the district’s other reductions, and we ask the Board to publish one. ^{31 1 15}
• A "three-phase approach to addressing the current budget deficit" was described to an advisory committee in February 2026. No itemized list of the phases or of the reductions appears in any Board packet we reviewed. The district’s October 16 document lists last year’s reductions by category, without amounts (18 items, including “Chinese immersion program staffing changes” and “District office staff reductions (9.5 FTE)”), and puts the total at “more than $6.5 million”; its October 16 update says “more than $6 million.” ^{40 20 1 15}
• The legally required budget hearing on September 14, 2026 drew no public comment and included no program-level reduction list. ⁴¹
• Scale: the 2023 program-cost estimate equals about 0.27% of that year's operating spending; see administrator compensation below. ^{3 42}

• No sport cut found for 2026–27. The team lists we checked at one high school and one middle school name the same sports as a year earlier, though web lists can lag. ^{43 44}
• Girls flag football was added, although April minutes expected budget pressure to limit new activities. ⁴⁵ It is funded by "Kansas City Chiefs grants, community fundraising, SCHEELS, USA Football, and gate receipts." ^{46 30}
• Fees went up. For 2026–27 the Board raised athletic passes to $60 student (was $40), $80 individual (was $55) and $250 family (was $85), and the high-school activity fee to $150 (was $135). ^{47 48} The whole fee package also covers lunch, parking, bus and device fees; its combined budget impact was estimated to exceed about $500,000. ^{29 47}
• A subsidy remains. On April 13 a staff member gave a rough verbal estimate of "about 400,000" in general-fund support for athletics and activities beyond pass revenue. ²⁹
• No published total. We have not located a district figure for total athletics cost.
• Bond money is separate. The proposed 2027 bond includes $5.6 million for courts, tracks, turf and fitness equipment; voters have not approved it. District leaders said capital funds cannot be used for instruction. ^{49 50 2}

The district's FAQ names special-education underfunding as one reason for the change. Here is what the official state and district sources say. ³³

Blue Valley's $16 million and $18 million are the district's own figures for money moved from its general fund. They are not the same as a statewide "shortfall" computed under the statute; do not treat them as interchangeable. ^{16 51}

State funding lawsuit: where it stands

• On May 20, 2026, Blue Valley, De Soto (USD 232), Olathe and Shawnee Mission announced a signed Memorandum of Understanding forming the Kansas Public Schools Funding Coalition. ⁵⁷
• On Aug. 11, 2026, the coalition announced it had selected the law firm Lathrop GPM to advise on school finance, "evaluate the legal and strategic timing for litigation against the State of Kansas," and develop a litigation strategy. ⁵⁸
• No lawsuit has been filed as of the sources below. KCUR (Aug. 12) reported the coalition "has not filed a suit." ⁵⁹
• Board President Jan Kessinger told KCTV5 on Oct. 15: "Whether that's a lawsuit, that remains to be seen." ³⁸
• Superintendent Gillian Chapman told BV Tiger News (a student newspaper, Sept. 25): "Collectively we'll be working together to determine if and when the time is right to file the lawsuit." ⁶⁰
• The coalition says state law requires the state to fund special education at "92 percent of excess costs," that it has not done so "for more than 15 years," and that the four districts "collectively spent more than $119 million in local funds" in 2024–25 to cover the shortfall. ⁵⁸ The statute itself is cited separately above. ⁵¹
• We found no Blue Valley Board agenda item or minutes recording a vote on the MOU or the counsel selection in BoardBook (May–Oct 2026). ⁶¹
• A lawsuit, if filed, would take time to resolve and would not by itself change the 2027–28 program decision. Restoring funding would still require Board action.

Administrator raises compared with a typical U.S. raise and inflation

The 2020–21 raise was not found (2020 U.S. typical raise: 2.9%) ⁶⁷. WorldatWork figures are U.S. all-sector averages. CPI-U percentages are calendar-year changes, our calculation from BLS data. The cost per administrator position in KSDE totals rose faster than these raise percentages in several years because it also reflects benefit costs, steps and position mix.

Since the figures above

• For 2026–27 the district contracted $18,700,000 for 107.0 administrator FTE, which is $320,986 (1.7%) lower than 2025–26 (average per position $174,766, down 3.7%). The district's October 16, 2026 update says administrators received no salary increase for 2026–27 and reports about $1.5 million in staffing reductions that began at the district office, including eliminated deputy superintendent and assistant superintendent positions. ^{7 15}
• The district's October 14, 2026 Board Brief reports that the Board approved a 1% compensation increase for classified staff and a 1% increase to the professional employee salary schedule for 2026–27; the 2025–26 increases were 4% for each of those groups, and administrators received none for 2026–27. ^{68 15 14}

How the inflation illustration works (our arithmetic, not district figures)

• The 2022–23 cost per administrator position ($149,653; $181,498 by 2025–26) is grown each year by the CPI-U calendar-year change (4.1% for 2023, 2.9% for 2024, 2.6% for 2025). The gap each year is the actual cost per position minus that path, times the actual positions (103.0, 103.9 and 104.8 FTE): about $0.34 million, $1.26 million and $1.78 million, $3.4 million in all. If cost per position had stayed completely flat at $149,653, the gaps would be about $1.0 million, $2.4 million and $3.3 million. For 2026–27, after the freeze, the gap against the 2026–27 contracted total ($18,700,000) is about $0.45–0.65 million.
• KSDE's totals include board-paid insurance and position mix, so cost per position is not a raise percentage. 5% of $18,700,000 is $935,000. The administrator total and the program's added cost are different accounts.

Context

• Teacher pay also rose over this period (KSDE average full-time teacher, $68,572 in 2022–23 to $84,948 in 2025–26). ^{12 7}
• The Board sets administrator pay. Administrator contracts are not published, and many administrator salaries are set by fixed-term contracts (the prior superintendent's barred reductions during its term), so changes may take effect only at renewal. We have not seen the current contract terms. Criticize budget choices, not people. ¹⁷
• KSDE reports the 2025–26 contracted position total (salary, supplemental pay and board-paid benefits) at $380,201, second highest of 285 districts; the Kansas average on the same basis is $149,896 (about 2.5 times). ^{70 71}
• Superintendent position, KSDE totals: $356,447 (2022–23), $377,987 (2023–24), $451,576 (2024–25, the state's highest that year and the prior superintendent's final year), $380,201 (2025–26, contracted). KSDE notes that totals can reflect factors such as severance packages. Olathe's 2025–26 total is $334,195; the highest in Kansas is $389,442 (Wichita). Individual cabinet salaries are not published. ^{70 71}
• Blue Valley board members serve without pay: the district's board page says "All seven serve the entire district without pay." ⁷² A June 12, 2023 Policy 1300 review states members are not compensated other than reimbursement for out-of-pocket expenses and dues (the adoption vote was not located). ⁷³ Kansas law changed in 2023 to allow school boards to pay members. ⁷⁴

Administrative spending overall

The administrator pay category and the state's administration functions overlap (principals' pay sits in both), so the two sets of figures must not be added together. ^{7 75}

Administrator compensation and administrative spending. An independent review re-checked the public administrator-compensation figures against official state and district records. Only aggregate, position-level findings are published here. No individual's pay is listed, and no administrator salary is presented as an avoidable saving. The named-payroll material in the underlying research is not published.

• FIN01Current program accounts, actual spending and FTE by school, year, job category and funding source
• FIN02The 2027–28 cancellation baseline and annual net-savings model, with formulas
• FIN03Deidentified position-level elimination, attrition, reassignment and replacement mapping
• FIN04Aggregate applications, offers, enrollment, waitlist and withdrawals by grade and site
• FIN05Section schedules, bilingual and paraeducator allocations, vacancies and feasible staffing
• FIN06Transition dates, materials, contracts, transportation and course-placement costs
• FIN07The native 2023 cost model, final 2022–23 actuals and explanation of the discrepancies above
• FIN08Program revenues and restrictions, and any actual outside-support commitments
• FIN09Any existing grandfathering, clustering or bridge analyses, and rejected-option assumptions
• FIN10High-school section minimums, placement and credit rules after lower grades end